One week after the former president gained a fresh lead over Harris, new bets are propelling him to new heights among those forecasting victories in several critical swing states on November 5th.

Notably, in Arizona, analysts predict a Trump win by a substantial 68-32% margin; in Georgia, he holds a similar 64-36% lead; and in North Carolina—a state embroiled in a growing FEMA disaster relief controversy—Trump currently leads Harris 63-37%.

Compounding the challenges for Harris is the belief among bettors that the “blue wall” will not hold in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump is projected to win in those states by narrower margins of 54-46% and 52-48%, respectively.

However, in the must-win state of Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 10-point lead over Harris, with a forecast of 55-45% among those placing bets. The only state still leaning in favor of Harris is Nevada, albeit narrowly, as she holds a 51-49% lead among bettors. Yet even there, recent polling indicates that Trump is ahead by as much as 5%. […]

Latest Election Odds

Trump • 65.8% chance (+4.5%)
Harris • 34.2% chance (-4.6%)

10 days until the election. pic.twitter.com/HwrMKjeKUh

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 25, 2024

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The early turnout is setting records in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, the Associated Press reported on Monday.

The GOP hopes this surge in early voting will address a mechanical issue that some within the party attribute to losses in the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022. Campaigns typically prefer their supporters to vote early so they can concentrate resources on mobilizing more marginal voters right before Election Day.

“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative and former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino.

Republicans appear to be responding positively. In Nevada, where Democrats have historically relied on a strong early voting turnout to counter the GOP on Election Day, approximately 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast early ballots as of Tuesday, according to research by the Associated Press. […]

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The 30-second spot highlights Harris telling co-host Sunny Hostin that “there is not a thing that comes to mind” when asked what she would’ve done differently than Biden over the last 3.5 years.

“A flood of illegals, skyrocketing prices, global chaos, and Kamala wouldn’t change a thing,” the narrator says in the ad. After a clip from the vice president’s widely criticized appearance on the ABC daytime talk show is aired, the narrator states: “Nothing will change with Kamala.”

“More weakness, more war, more welfare for illegals, and even more taxes,” the ad continues. “Only President Trump cut middle-class taxes, and only President Trump will do it again.” […]

https://t.co/wrHFa4DTWr
I've posted that interview segment a few times, and I love the fact that President Trump is using it to show voters who Kamala is. pic.twitter.com/1LJ5n0NzHf

— RetiredPublius (@ProffesorPubli1) October 17, 2024

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Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who filed for divorce from his then-wife, Kate Gallego, in 2016, lost a protracted legal battle to keep the case private. The Washington Free Beacon prevailed in a 10-month court fight, culminating in the Arizona Supreme Court’s rejection of Gallego’s final appeal to keep the documents sealed.

Gallego filed a memorandum to the court that year stating that Kate Gallego “had not yet been served” with divorce papers and “her attorney entered an appearance” hadn’t yet occurred in the case, noting that she was “likely to give birth any day,” according to The Washington Free Beacon. The divorce petition said that the “parties’ marriage is irretrievably broken” and saw “no reasonable prospect of reconciliation.”

That said, it appears that Kate Gallego was caught off-guard by the filing. In a February 2017 response to his divorce filing, she said she was “without knowledge of information sufficient to form a belief” that the marriage wasn’t fixable and thus refuted her then-husband’s claim.

In short, Ruben Gallego’s wife, then a Phoenix city councilwoman, was extremely pregnant when she was served with divorce papers she had no idea were coming, the Free Beacon noted. […]

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Media reports that Trump is regretting picking Vance were called “absolute bullsh*t” on the “Dan Bongino Show.” Bongino said leaks from Trump’s side may have driven these reports. According to sources, Bongino pointed to a report in the Daily Mail that said Trump is “melting down” over Vance.

“There’s a lot of internal sabotage going on right now that I honestly did not want to highlight because I like to stay focused on the Democrats and I was hoping it would go away. It’s not,” Bongino said.

The right-leaning pundit asserted that he has spoken with numerous individuals who think that Vance’s stance on Ukraine is causing dissatisfaction among certain Republicans. […]

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According to an AtlasIntel survey of likely voters in battleground states, Trump leads in Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1) and Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2).

The former president is also in a “narrow” lead in the states that are in doubt: Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). This information was provided by AtlasIntel. In Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7) and North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1), Harris is ahead.

538 voters chose AtlasIntel as the most reliable polling organization for the 2020 presidential contest. If the Republican takes the five battleground states that he presently leads in their polling, with Harris at 248 Electoral College votes, Trump would win the 2024 election with 290 Electoral College votes.

Between September 20 and 25, AtlastIntel conducted polls, with a margin of error of two to three percentage points. […]

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The Quinnipiac and Emerson surveys released on Tuesday show the former president leading the vice president in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while they are tied in Pennsylvania.

If these numbers hold, Trump would secure 262 electoral votes, making Harris’s path to victory narrow, as it would hinge on winning Michigan and Wisconsin and ultimately pulling off a win in Pennsylvania, the New York Post reported, citing the latest data.

In North Carolina’s Quinnipiac poll, Trump leads Kamala Harris 49% to 47%, with his advantage primarily coming from men and white voters without college degrees. Among these groups, the GOP nominee has 59% and 66% support, respectively.

“Harris leads 56% to 40% with women overall, but Trump has tied her with white women, suggesting the novelty of a historic female presidential candidate of color isn’t resonating with this group,” The Post added.

Harris’s strongest demographic by far is Black voters, where she leads 90% to 2%, a figure that contradicts other surveys showing Trump gaining support among Black men. […]

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Even after CBS said that live fact-checking would not be permitted during the debate, the moderators did it on multiple occasions. Vance implied that resources in Springfield, Ohio, are being overtaken by illegal immigrants; Brennan intervened to correct him.

“Just to clarify for our viewers, Springfield, Ohio does have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status, temporary protected status,” Brennan said.

As the moderators attempted to move on, Vance pushed back. […]

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According to the latest tally from Busken Bakery shared with The Post, Trump received approximately 54% support (2,953 cookies) compared to Harris’ 39% (2,134 cookies). An “independent” smiley-face cookie garnered 7% (397 cookies).

“The cookie poll will remain open until Election Day on Nov. 5, so the tallies reflect the result of ‘early voting’ by those with a sweet tooth,” The Post noted.

“We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box,” bakery president and CEO Dan Busken told the outlet.

“Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east and west portions of Cincinnati. So they’re pretty diverse,” Busken told The Post. “It’s definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and in a city like Cincinnati that there’s been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years.”

BREAKING: THE COOKIES HAVE SPOKEN—TRUMP LEADS! Trump takes the lead in Cincinnati's quirky "cookie poll," which has accurately predicted every election but one since 1984. Trump holds 54% (2,953 cookies), with Harris at 39% (2,134 cookies) and an "independent" smiley-face cookie… pic.twitter.com/YavkYDFMru

— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) October 1, 2024

[…]

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Cruz sat for an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity last week, where the two discussed the debate.

“I mean, and there’s so much that we don’t understand. Defund, dismantle, reimagine ICE, the police, the Minneapolis, they wanted to talk about January 6th. There was 600 riots in the summer of 2020,” Hannity began. “She tweets out the Minnesota, the Minnesota Bail Fund four days after the police precinct is burned.

“And, you know, ‘they won’t stop. They shouldn’t stop. We’re not going to stop,’ — all things that she said. Eighteen to 24-year-olds are stupid. Abolish the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal. Inflation is transitory. The border is secure. We’re proud of ‘Bidenomics’. The country needs to be woke. We’ll never deport illegals. And now we’re going to give free sex change operations to convicted felons and illegal immigrants. How’s that going to go over in your state of Texas? I would imagine not so well,” Hannity added.

“Look, it goes over terribly. But what you just did, what I just did, is what the Trump campaign needs to do between now and Election Day, which is lay out the actual facts of her record because she won’t confront them,” Cruz responded. “So, for example, on abortion, she said ‘no, no, no, I’m not for late-term abortions, eight and nine-month abortions.’ Well, she has voted for legislation that would legalize abortion up until the moment of birth. […]

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