When that agenda failed (lockdowns blocked, mask mandates ignored, vaccine passports defeated and the CDC caught inflating vaccination numbers), the WEF and Klaus Schwab conveniently disappeared from the media radar.

When globalists tried to permanently establish ESG as a way of life for corporations, they introduced the Council For Inclusive Capitalism, run by Lynn de Rothschild and partnered with the Vatican. When ESG was exposed for what it really is (a bridge to full bore communism in which corporations enforce far left social engineering), the CIC vanished from the limelight as quickly as they appeared.

That said, there is one globalist group that has consistently been in the background during most of these operations – The Atlantic Council. Whenever there’s a propaganda push in play to misdirect the western public, whenever there’s a policy initiative to take away your freedoms, whenever there’s a regional war that might explode into a world war, I always end up finding the fingerprints of the Atlantic Council.

The council was deeply involved in covid propaganda from 2020 onward and they also have their hands in climate change propaganda, but their bread and butter is regional proxy wars.

In my recent article ‘Globalists Are Trying To Escalate The Ukraine War Into WWIII Before The US Election’, I outlined how the council is deeply interwoven into the escalation of the Ukraine war through their Eurasia Center and their Scowcroft Center. They have been stoking conflict in the region for at least a decade with the intention of drawing NATO forces into a direct confrontation with Russia.

In a report published by the Atlantic Council in 2014 titled ‘A Roadmap for Ukraine: Delivering on the Promise of the Maidan’, the group notes:

“Last fall, as Ukrainians massed on the Maidan to demand a better government and closer ties to Europe, the Atlantic Council began to mobilize on Ukraine. An Atlantic Council delegation visited Warsaw and Kyiv in March to map out our strategy, and during the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to the Council that same month, we launched a one hundred- day campaign to galvanize the transatlantic community behind Ukraine’s democratic future in Europe.

As the crisis worsened, we convened at the highest levels, making vital connections between Ukrainian, American, and European policymakers and thought leaders. We deployed our substantial expertise to launch “red team” exercises that anticipated Russia’s actions and outlined strategies to respond to likely scenarios. Our rapid response working groups (“tiger teams”) made recommendations on issues fundamental to Ukraine’s success. An Atlantic Council delegation delivered this report, which brings all of these findings together, to Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and other leaders in Kyiv the first week of July. The findings are also being shared with American and European policymakers…”

On Ukraine’s security policy, the Council advised both NATO and Ukraine officials.  The document goes on to outline how NATO could covertly and overtly engage with Ukraine to strengthen their chances of joining with the EU over time; a move which Vladimir Putin claims was one of the very reasons for his invasion of the Donbas.  Finally, the paper described how NATO could foster a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine without directly declaring war on Russia.  As the Council states:

“Russia’s aggression provides an opportunity of strategic clarity and urgency that should be used to expedite building a robust, modern, and capable Ukrainian defense and security establishment…”

I believe the Atlantic Council is a root instigator behind every globalist scheme to trigger a larger war between the East and the West. Their ideal scenario seems to be the creation of a proxy conflict that acts as a first domino in a chain that leads to world war, a bit like DARPA’s “Linchpin Theory” which I have written about in the past.

To be clear, the council is not only interested in Ukraine and Russia. They’re happy to embroil Americans in a larger war wherever they can.

This past week, the Atlantic Council has published another war scenario report dealing with Iran titled ‘The Future of US Strategy Toward Iran: A Bipartisan Roadmap For The Next Administration’. The goal of the report is to influence a new defense doctrine with a mission to insert the US directly in the middle of the burgeoning war between Iran and Israel.

As the report states:

“In simple terms, the goal was to develop a US policy toward Iran, not a Democratic or Republican one. We termed the effort the Iran Strategy Project (ISP). And when we began recruiting experts to join our advisory committee and working group, we did so with two overriding principles in mind. First, ideological diversity and bipartisanship could not just be talking points—they were requirements. The wild swings of US policy toward Iran over the last decade created significant policy gaps that Iran exploited to more rapidly advance its regional malign influence and nuclear program…”

The assumption in the notion of a “bipartisan” posture on Iran is that there is common ground to be harvested between conservatives and leftists when it comes to war in the region. To be sure, the Democrats and the Neo-Cons are in full agreement on most things.  But Neo-Cons are not conservatives and the political base on both sides of the aisle has little interest in another war in the Middle East.

The wild card here is Trump. The establishment media reports that Iran hacked the Trump campaign’s election strategies and gave them to the Harris camp. There are also rumors spread by US intelligence agencies that Iran was working to have Trump assassinated.  Are these claims true? There’s little public evidence available to prove it.

Maybe Iran really wants to take Trump down. Or, maybe this is part of a plot to ensure that Trump backs a full blown war with Iran should he win the election.  Trump has said repeatedly that he intends to end the war in Ukraine upon his return to the White House. This would ruin over a decade of planning by the Atlantic Council. But what if they can sink the US into a different conflict with the same potential for a world war? That’s what Iran is – Another linchpin.

The council asserts that they will seek to tie the US inexorably to the fate of Israel by positioning a permanent American military force in the region:

“Deterring the threat posed by Iran and its proxies requires a multifaceted approach that includes maintaining an adequate military presence in the region and a willingness to respond with appropriate force to attacks on US interests and those of US allies; working with allies to enhance cooperation on regional security; collaborating with partners on ways to reduce conflicts and instability that create openings for Iran to exploit; and expanding security cooperation beyond traditional realms.”

They also want the US to create its own red line declaration; if Iran obtains nukes, then Iran must be destroyed (keep in mind, it is confirmed that Israel already has its own nuclear arsenal).

“The United States needs to maintain a declaratory policy, explicitly enunciated by the president, that it will not tolerate Iran getting a nuclear weapon and will use military force to prevent this development if all other measures fail. To support this policy, the United States should refrain from stressing that it does not seek conflict with Iran; announce that it will conduct yearly joint exercises with Israel, such as Juniper Oak.”

Juniper Oak was a joint live fire war exercise organized by US and Israeli defense forces in 2023 which is viewed as a theoretical trial run for an attack on Iran. War between Iran and the US has been a sought after outcome for globalists for a long time, but it seems to me that they are particularly interested in roping Trump into the agenda.  The following statement from the Atlantic Council report is highly suspicious:

“Because assassination plots against current or former US officials are a direct threat to US sovereignty, and in order to enhance deterrence, the United States needs to consider a standing policy of a kinetic military response against Iran in retaliation for a successful—or even close to successful—plot…”

This seems to be a direct reference or message to Trump concerning the rumors of Iran contracting his death. Given there have been at least two assassination attempts on Trump so far, I would not be surprised if after he wins the election new information is suddenly released linking Iran to at least one attack.  I would also expect a major terror attack in the US within the next year (real or false flag).

This is not to say that Trump wants war; I can’t make that claim one way or the other yet.  To his credit he was one of the few presidents that avoided the expansion of US conflicts during his first term. But as I warned back in 2016, he had a LOT of ghouls in his cabinet whispering in his ear. Keeping the Atlantic Council (among others) away from the Oval Office and Trump should be a priority in 2025.

The council appears to be positioning for a war under either administration – A war with Russia under Harris or a war with Iran under Trump.  I’m not a fan of Islamic fundamentalism, but a conflict between the US and Iran is exactly what the globalists want because it can easily metastasize like a cancer.

The council notes that there are already 40,000 US troops spread across the Middle East, and that this force could be reorganized into a contingent for rapid response to Iran, along with new troops added over time. Of course, they acknowledge that Iran’s situation has changed over the years, with far closer strategic associations with China and Russia:

“This requires recognition that Iran’s relationship with Russia and China has evolved in a manner that makes it difficult to convince either country to support new economic or military restrictions against Iran…”

In other words, the council understands that a war with Iran could escalate into a larger conflict with Russia and perhaps China.

The fight between Israel and multiple nations in the Middle East does not concern me. I have no stake in the success of either side. I’m an American and I care about America, but there are powerful people out there that WANT us to become invested in foreign wars. They want us to pick a side and they want us to cheer for American troops being sent to fight and die over these foreign conflagrations.

The greater concern here is that one day these proxy wars and regional wars will explode into something that lands on our doorstep. In the past Americans have been lured into apathy when it comes to foreign entanglements because we never have to deal with them in our daily lives. They’ve always been out of sight and out of mind. In the next war, we may not have that luxury.

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In other words, we are on the brink of the sort of all-out war between Israel and Iran that I specifically warned about in a chapter entitled “The 3 Wars Of The Apocalypse” that was featured in a book that I published last year.  I know that virtually everyone in the U.S. is really focused on the upcoming election at the moment, but what is going on in the Middle East right now is really big news.

We just witnessed the largest Israeli attack on Iran ever.  It is being reported that “dozens of fighter jets” were involved in a massive operation that struck targets all over Iran and Syria…

Dozens of fighter jets hit ballistic missile factories, air defence batteries and missile launchers. Israel launched a simultaneous attack on military targets in central and southern Syria. Among the pilots and navigators involved in the Iran strikes were a number of women, praised by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) for their bravery.

It is thought the secret research base near Tehran was developing ‘kamikaze drone’ technology, designed to loiter over a target until instructed to attack.

According to Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari, the Israelis now have “broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran”, and this will make it easier for the IDF the next time it becomes necessary to strike the Iranians…

Israel’s first open attack on Iran targeted missile production facilities and air defense systems, the military said Saturday, tempering fears of a broader foray but giving Israeli aircraft the ability to operate more freely in Iranian skies as the region entered a new phase of escalation.

“Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” an Israeli military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said in a statement after the attack concluded. The remarks signaled Israel’s willingness to strike Iran in the future, even as Israeli officials said the attacks were tailored to minimize casualties and allow Iran to deny major damage.

The Biden administration is trying to play down the size and scope of the Israeli operation, and Joe Biden is desperately hoping that the Iranians will choose not to respond…

“It looks like they didn’t hit anything other than military targets,” President Joe Biden, speaking to reporters in Philadelphia, said of the Israeli strikes. “I hope that this is the end.”

We should all hope that this is the end of it. But it appears that the Iranians have already made their decision.

The Daily Mail is reporting that Iran has “vowed revenge” and that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is using the phrase “no limits” to describe what Iran might do…

Iran vowed revenge yesterday after Israel’s missile blitz on Tehran destroyed up to 20 key military sites, including a top-secret research facility.

Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had ‘no limits’ in defending its interests and was obliged to take retaliatory action.

Those are very strong words.

And we are being told that Araghchi has already delivered a letter to the United Nations that declares that Iran has the right to respond to the Israeli attack…

Iran’s top diplomat has condemned Israel’s unprecedented attack on multiple military sites across the Islamic Republic and has asserted Tehran’s right to respond to the latest escalation amid a year-long Middle East conflict in a letter obtained by Newsweek.

The letter was attributed to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and sent Saturday to United Nations (U.N.) Secretary-General António Guterres and U.N. Security Council President Pascale Christine Baeriswyl via Iranian Permanent Representative to the U.N. Amir Saeid Iravani.

According to Araghchi, Iran “reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time”.

To me, it sounds like the Iranians do not plan to respond immediately. But a response is definitely coming. And the Israelis have already warned that they will hit Iran again if the Iranians strike back.

So this is it. The big war between Israel and Iran is here.

Of course the big war between Israel and Hezbollah has already been raging. In recent days, fierce fighting in southern Lebanon has resulted in a substantial number of Israeli casualties…

Ten Israeli soldiers were killed and at least 28 more wounded to varying degrees amid heavy battles against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Israel Defense Forces announced Thursday and Friday.

The soldiers were killed in three separate incidents in just over 24 hours. Since the start of the ground offensive in Lebanon, 27 soldiers have fallen amid the heavy fighting.

In the most recent incident, five reservists serving in the 8th Hazaken Brigade’s 89th Battalion were killed, and 19 others were wounded, with four in serious condition, when a Hezbollah rocket struck a supply point at a building in a southern Lebanese village.

We aren’t hearing much about this from the big news networks in the United States, are we?

If they give too much attention to what is going on in the Middle East right now, that could make Kamala Harris and the Biden administration look bad, and so they are being pretty quiet about it.

The big news networks in the United States are also being pretty quiet about the stunning Russian advances that are happening in eastern Ukraine…

With Russia advancing at the fastest rate in eastern Ukraine since the first months of the invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been pleading with the West to allow Kyiv to fire deep into Russia with Western missiles.

The Biden administration’s plan for the war in Ukraine has completely and utterly failed.

Billions and billions and billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars have been poured into that war, but the Russians are still winning. In fact, the Russians are gobbling up more territory with each passing day. And now the Middle East is on the verge of erupting in flames.

We were warned about these wars way in advance, but most people still aren’t paying much attention.

What will it take before most of the population finally starts waking up?

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is worried that World War III could break out in the next four months due to the policies of the Democrats leading the US government.

“I actually worry about the next three months. I really do. I worry about the next three and a half four months will end up in a world war because of this, the people that we have [in government],” he said at a rally in the state of California.

The Biden administration has been making colossal mistake after colossal mistake in the Middle East.

Now the time for talk is over and Israeli tanks have entered southern Lebanon…

Israeli tanks have burst through the gates of a United Nations peacekeeper base in southern Lebanon, the UN confirmed today.

It comes after Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded the UNIFL withdraw from combat zones and Hezbollah strongholds — and accused the UN of inadvertently ‘providing terrorists with human shields’.

In a statement addressed to U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Netanyahu said: ‘The time has come for you to withdraw UNIFIL from Hezbollah strongholds and from the combat zones.

Of course Hezbollah has been quite busy as well. On Saturday, Hezbollah fired missiles at four different Israeli military bases…

Hezbollah claimed it had destroyed four military bases in Israel today as it launched a blistering rocket attack across the southern border.

The Iranian-proxy group said it had hit bases in Al-Jarrah, Za’rit and bases in the Golan Heights after claiming to have pushed back advancing forces late Friday.

Its fighters were ‘targeting the explosives factory there with a salvo of… missiles’, the group said in a statement this morning.

Then on Sunday, a massive Hezbollah drone attack injured more than 60 people in northern Israel…

More than 60 people have been injured, several of them critically, in a drone attack in northern Israel, according to first responders.

There were no immediate official reports of deaths from the attack, but the high number of injuries reported makes the attack one of the bloodiest since the war started last October.

The news comes after Hezbollah said Sunday it had fired a swarm of attack drones on an Israeli “Golani” infantry training camp in Binyamina, south of Haifa. The Lebanon-based militant group said the attack was in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Thursday that killed 22 people and injured 117, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

Most Americans are not really paying much attention to this war yet.

And most Americans don’t seem to realize that we will be directly involved.

In fact, it is being reported that approximately 100 U.S. troops will be operating the THAAD air defense systems that are about to be sent to Israel…

On Saturday we were among the first outlets to report that the United States is preparing to deploy THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems in Israel, a major development which will put American troops directly in harm’s way (or… boots on the ground) amid the tense showdown with Iran.

The Pentagon in follow-up statements to the NY Times has confirmed the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems will be sent to Israel, and that about 100 American troops will operate them.

If Iran and Israel start lobbing thousands of missiles at one another, those troops will be very heavily involved in what is happening.

Israel has promised to respond to Iran’s recent missile attack, and that could unleash a chain of events that nobody will be able to control.

According to the Daily Mail, the Iranians are making some very alarming threats…

Iran has threatened to recalculate its nuclear weapons programme if Israel launches a revenge strike as Biden has insisted Tehran is not building nukes. Since Hamas’s October 7 attack last year on Israel triggered a wave of regional hostilities between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants, officials in Tehran have warned the Islamic republic could change its nuclear doctrine if it faced an existential threat. But they have been deliberately vague about what that might entail.

Pretty soon, both sides will be forced to reveal all of their cards. And once that happens, everything will change.

Meanwhile, the Russians continue to gobble up more territory in eastern Ukraine…

Russian forces have seized control of another eastern Ukrainian settlement, Moscow said on Sunday, in what would be the latest in a string of gains in the Donetsk region if confirmed.

The Kremlin said on Sunday that its Center group of forces had captured the Donetsk village of Mykhailivka.

Several settlements in Ukraine bear the same name, and Russia’s Defense Ministry statement is likely referring to the village immediately east of Selydove, southeast of the strategic Ukrainian-held hub of Pokrovsk where Moscow has been concentrating its efforts.

The Russians clearly have the upper hand at this stage.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky desperately wants NATO to give him permission to use western missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, and he is also accusing the Russians of using North Korean troops against him…

Zelensky’s comments came days after visiting several European capitals to press his case for more military and financial help in the war against invading Russian forces.

“We see an increasing alliance between Russia and regimes like in North Korea,” Zelensky said in his evening address.

“It is no longer just about transferring weapons. It is actually about the transfer of people from North Korea to the occupier’s military forces.

“Obviously, in such circumstances, our relations with our partners need to be developed. The frontline needs more support,” he said.

Both sides just continue to escalate matters, and I am entirely convinced that it is just a matter of time before the U.S. and Russia are directly fighting one another.

If our leaders had any sense, they would sit down at the negotiating table before things ever have a chance to reach that point.

Before I end this article, there is one more thing that I wanted to mention.

According to the Wall Street Journal, fleets of unidentified drones have been flying over U.S. military bases on the east coast…

U.S. Air Force Gen. Mark Kelly wasn’t sure what to make of reports that a suspicious fleet of unidentified aircraft had been flying over Langley Air Force Base on Virginia’s shoreline.

Kelly, a decorated senior commander at the base, got on a squadron rooftop to see for himself. He joined a handful of other officers responsible for a clutch of the nation’s most advanced jet fighters, including F-22 Raptors.

For several nights, military personnel had reported a mysterious breach of restricted airspace over a stretch of land that has one of the largest concentrations of national-security facilities in the U.S. The show usually starts 45 minutes to an hour after sunset, another senior leader told Kelly.

The first drone arrived shortly. Kelly, a career fighter pilot, estimated it was roughly 20 feet long and flying at more than 100 miles an hour, at an altitude of roughly 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Other drones followed, one by one, sounding in the distance like a parade of lawn mowers.

I would very much encourage you to read that entire article, because it is absolutely stunning.

Our military has no idea where the drones are coming from, and they are not being allowed to shoot them down…

Officials didn’t know if the drone fleet, which numbered as many as a dozen or more over the following nights, belonged to clever hobbyists or hostile forces. Some suspected that Russia or China deployed them to test the response of American forces.

Federal law prohibits the military from shooting down drones near military bases in the U.S. unless they pose an imminent threat. Aerial snooping doesn’t qualify, though some lawmakers hope to give the military greater leeway.

If a fleet of unidentified aircraft is flying over highly sensitive military bases, you shoot them down.

I don’t even understand why there would be any debate.

My guess is that the drones are probably from either Russia or China. But if they are not from either Russia or China, that is probably an even more troubling scenario.

In any event, it has become clear that we are living at a time of wars and rumors of wars.

This war in the Middle East has escalated to an extremely dangerous level, the war in Ukraine is reaching a critical stage, and I believe that it won’t be too long before a conflict between the U.S. and China erupts.

World War I and World World War II both killed millions of people. World War III will kill billions of people, and it is right at the door.

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

The Pentagon in follow-up statements to the NY Times has confirmed the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems will be sent to Israel, and that about 100 American troops will operate them.

This means that at least 100 American soldiers will be placed in positions likely to be targeted by another potential barrage of ballistic missiles from Iran, at a moment Israel is preparing its own counterattack in the wake of the the Oct.1st strikes (which witnessed about 200 missiles sent) on Israeli territory from the Islamic Republic. Each full missile battery and associated systems cost American taxpayers some $800 million to $1 billion.

All of this follows the Pentagon having weeks ago deployed thousands more US troops to the broader region amid escalation in Lebanon. Some of those forces were sent to Cyprus, and others likely to Gulf countries or possibly Jordan.

The Pentagon has tried to deflect from language which portrays the obvious: that without Congressional authorization American troops are entering an escalating overseas war zone to defend a foreign country.

The NY Times acknowledged the following exchange:

When asked on Sunday, Mr. Biden said only that he had ordered the Pentagon to deploy the system “to defend Israel. General Ryder said in his statement that the battery would “augment Israel’s integrated air defense system.” It was not immediately clear how quickly the missile defense system and troops announced on Sunday would arrive in Israel.

“This action underscores the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran,” the statement said. “It is part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months to support the defense of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.”

So interestingly this is the new talking point from the national security state: Americans are being deployed to defend Americans who happen to still be in Israel. This certainly marks a new and interesting rationale.

This big “gift” is being sent to Israel even after rising tensions between Netanyahu and Biden…

So by deploying THAAD to Israel, we're not really solving the problem, just incentizing Iran to build up more missiles. So what we are actually doing is tieing ourselves further into the Israel-Iran missile/BMD race for only short term benefits.

— Decker Eveleth (@dex_eve) October 13, 2024

One regional observers has observed that this is Netanyahu’s longtime dream come true:

Journalist Séamus Malekafzali argued the U.S. deployment of troops and the THAAD system shows that “the Israelis are clearly planning something for Iran that is going to cause a retaliation they know their own systems are unable to take.”

“U.S. troops being deployed to Israel in this matter is seismic,” Malekafzali added. “The U.S. military is now inextricably involved in this war, directly, without any illusions of barriers. Netanyahu is as close as he has ever been to his ultimate wish: making the U.S. fight Iran on Israel’s behalf.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday had actually issued some soft criticism of Israel after two UN peacekeeping troops in south Lebanon were wounded by Israeli fire an a UNIFIL command post.

Austin “expressed his deep concern about reports that Israeli forces fired on U.N. peacekeeping positions in Lebanon as well as by the reported death of two Lebanese soldiers” in a phone call with his Israeli counterpart.

Netanyahu has spent a year treating Biden like a doormat, Biden is nonetheless sending American troops to protect Israel, and afterwards Biden will probably go back to pretending as if America has no meaningful leverage over Israel https://t.co/YNrHoxkb8y

— Gregg Carlstrom (@glcarlstrom) October 13, 2024

As for the missile battery contingent of 100 US troops being sent to Israel, likely there were already US special forces and commanders who have been in Tel Aviv and near Gaza in an “advisory” role. But this clearly marks a new much more direct role of US forces in the conflict, especially given the Iranians have already threatened that if hostilities escalate, anti-air batteries in Israel will come under attack.

“As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right, to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely,” Netanyahu told the General Assembly, adding, “And that’s exactly what we’re doing.”

During his speech, Netanyahu showed world leaders two maps of the Middle East, pointing out the difference between a “blessing” and a “curse.”

“Now look at this second map,” he said, pointing out, “It’s a map of a curse. It’s a map of an arc of terror that Iran has created and imposed from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean.”

Netanyahu added: “There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach – that’s true for the whole of the Middle East.”

Even with broadening war risks in the Middle East, the geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude has all but evaporated – overshadowed by economic slowdown fear in China and the US. Not even the China stimulus story earlier this week could ignite crude prices.

On Thursday, we noted the usual anonymous sources reporting by corporate media were back, and pressured Brent crude prices lower. The first report was published by Reuters earlier this month. In that report, journos cited anonymous sources that said OPEC+ was set to proceed with a production hike in October. Then an FT report on Thursday joined the anonymous-source-citing oil manipulation game with the news that the Saudis were ready to ditch the unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude.

Also, recent headlines surrounding a possible ceasefire in the Middle East have pressured oil prices. We must ask what exactly ‘the powers that be’ are afraid of?

Maybe Goldman analyst Lindsay Matcham’s note to clients this morning shows precisely what ‘the powers that be’ are afraid of…

“We’re continuing to keep a close eye on the conflict in the Middle East amid intensifying tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.” 

Matcham added:

“We think further escalation in the conflict could have material market implications, especially if it involves a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would likely lead to a spike in oil prices here.” 

Strait of Hormuz…

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Lina Thomas outlines four positive near-term drivers for crude markets:

• The easing in global policy.
• Inventories are still drawing.
• Positioning and valuation remain low.
• Oil markets are not pricing a significant risk of geopolitical disruptions.

Fast forward to noon today, Brent prices jumped to the mid-point of the $72 handle after IDF airstrikes targeted Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut.

Massive Israeli Airstrikes In Beirut Target Hezbollah HQ, Nasrallah https://t.co/uqp8T0VZyM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 27, 2024

Broadening war risks come as speculators have placed record bearish bets in crude markets.

Brent prices hover around $72/bbl in late morning trading in the US.

The looming question for Brent traders is: When will the war risk premium return?

A potential IDF invasion of Lebanon could provoke Iran, although there are currently no signs of Tehran’s imminent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Given the Israel-Hezbollah escalation in conflict to the end of the week, traders should monitor these events as traders hold record net-bearish bets on crude.