The detailed 194-page document includes an overview of chief nuclear-armed powers and rivals of the United States, focusing especially on countries with “mature nuclear weapons programs” which are said to be “increasing stockpiles” or else “modernizing their legacy stockpiles by incorporating advanced technologies to penetrate or avoid missile defense systems” – such as North Korea.

“Countries are also developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range for military or coercive use,” the DIA says.

One nation’s program is gaining the most attention as a result of the DIA report, and that’s China. The intelligence agency assesses the country under President Xi is undergoing a huge and rapid expanse of its nuclear arsenal, which is the biggest in its history, assuming the projection is accurate.

The “Nuclear Challenges 2024” assesses that China is on track to possess more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.

The report contextualizes that this accelerated growth is being drive primarily by China’s strategic competition with the Untied States.

Below is a section providing the DIA’s bird’s eye view summary of China’s nuclear arsenal plans and expansion:

China. Beijing has far surpassed earlier growth estimates assessed in 2018, and is currently exceeding 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile. By 2030, we estimate that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads— most of which will be fielded on systems capable of ranging the continental United States. China probably also seeks lower-yield nuclear warhead capabilities to provide proportional response options that its high-yield warheads cannot deliver. For example, China is increasing its stockpile of theater-range delivery systems, such as the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

Below is a current snapshot of the global nuclear stockpile situation, as it stood by middle of this year…

You will find more infographics at Statista

As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, currently, there are estimated to be 9,585 nuclear warheads in military stockpiles for potential use across nine countries, with Russia and the U.S. accounting for 8,088 of these.

There are also an estimated 2,536 retired warheads that are yet to be dismantled. China has added 90 nuclear warheads to its arsenal since January 2023, increasing from 410 warheads to 500.

This is according to data from the peace research institute SIPRI. India and North Korea have also expanded their arsenals, bringing their total figures to an estimated 170 warheads and 50 warheads, respectively.

The two European nuclear powers, France and the UK, together have 515 operational nuclear warheads. With the exception of North Korea, none of the nations in possession of nuclear warheads have tested them since the 1990s.

The notice about the project appeared on the official U.S. government website for contract opportunities, SAM.gov. Its description states: “The minimum needs of this contract are that the contractor provide all personnel, equipment, facilities, supervision, and other items necessary to conduct studies that demonstrate modeling of nuclear warfare on a global scale that would lead to destruction of the agriculture systems such as farms.”

The project will fall under the umbrella of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Engineer Research and Development Center, who are looking to model how food production systems could be affected by a nuclear disaster. Although it could yield potentially valuable information, one has to wonder why they suddenly feel the need to carry out such a project.

The prolonged military conflict between Ukraine and Russia is almost certainly behind this concern, and it’s worth noting that Secretary of State Antony Blinken has insinuated that the White House may be poised to lift restrictions on Ukraine using the long-range weapons it has received from Western nations inside of Russia.

In other words, it seems likely that the DoD is preparing for the potential fallout of what could be a dramatic change to the way the conflict is currently playing out there. There are also concerns that the pursuit of these types of projects could indicate changing military priorities are on the horizon.

The Colorado data modeling firm Terra Analytics has been awarded the contract, which will also entail optimizing a software suite simulating the fallout of nuclear warfare on infrastructure related to agriculture. Aerial mapping and other approaches will be used to explore how food supplies and farms in former Eastern bloc countries could be affected.

Another component of this study is the development of a better model simulating the effect that radioactive materials would have on agriculture in an unspecified “non-destructive nuclear event.”

The fact that the contractor working on the project must be able to adapt the software to meet the specifications of classified Department of Defense computing systems would appear to indicate that the project may be linked to national security concerns.

Putin has hinted at a nuclear response if West allows Ukraine to use long-range weapons inside Russia

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that if the West does change its stance to allow Ukraine to use weapons it has supplied them inside of Russia, it will be directly fighting Russia and the nature of the conflict would change considerably. He promised to launch an “appropriate” response but did not provide details. However, he said earlier this summer that one option was arming enemies of the West with Russian weapons so they could strike Western targets abroad.

Some analysts, like University of Innsbruck security specialist Gerhard Mangott, believe that Russia might send a nuclear signal.

“The Russians could conduct a nuclear test. They have made all the preparations needed. They could explode a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in the east of the country just to demonstrate that (they) mean it when they say we will eventually resort to nuclear weapons,” he stated.

Meanwhile, Russian’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia warned that NATO will “be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power” should it permit Ukraine to use its long-range weapons against Russia.

He cautioned: “You shouldn’t forget about this and think about the consequences.”

Sources for this article include:

• JonFleetwood.Substack.com
• SAM.gov
• Reuters.com