This state was supposed to be as blue as the Pacific by now. It’s why ideas like the national popular vote interstate compact were mulled for a hot second. That’s no longer true because public opinion is shiftable sand, and demography is not destiny. We were warned that Florida was on the verge of slipping out of competitiveness for Republicans.
One thing the political class never expected was Donald Trump coming like a bat out of hell. Not only is Florida never being more Republican, but Ohio, too. Both states, the source of heartburn for GOP pollsters regarding national elections, are now safe red bastions. Trump has shown that he can shatter the blue wall. What GOP candidate has given us that opportunity? Trump won every swing state this cycle, and as Democrats grapple with how to right the ship, the answer might be below the Mason-Dixon Line.
The Sunshine State is where some in the Democratic Party’s operative class feel that things must turn around if they wish to remain a viable national party. As of now, with the census and congressional reapportionment, it’s looking grim as red states are also bound to gain more Electoral votes. Politico wrote about how Florida is a microcosm of all the issues facing Democrats, but there’s also a huge problem that the progressive base might not like:
For those who’d been in denial, the 2024 election proclaimed Florida as a red state. The party got romped up and down the ticket, and many of the same factors that affected the rest of the U.S. were magnified here: Voters were deeply concerned about immigration, inflation and the economy, and Republicans received strong support from Hispanics.
[…]
If national Democrats ignore the trends in Florida then they may very well be writing their own obituary, party strategists in the state say.
“If you want to elect presidents from 2032 on, we have to start winning states that we are losing,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who successfully helped former President Barack Obama win Florida twice. National Democrats would need to invest in Florida and other southern states because it would otherwise take a “crazy set of circumstances to win Congress or the presidency,” he added.
Population growth leading up to 2030, when the next census and reapportionment take place, could deliver even more congressional seats — and Electoral College votes — to Florida, Texas and other Republican-friendly states, while Democratic-leaning behemoths of New York and California are poised to lose ground. The bottom line? It may not be possible for Democrats in future presidential cycles to get to 270 electoral votes without reversing their fortune in the South. […]
— Read More: townhall.com
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