Vice President Kamala Harris may lead in the national polling average and be slightly ahead in four of the seven battleground states, depending on where you look, but behind the window-dressing lurks so much more. First, a recent Gallup poll revealed that when it comes to the issues Americans are most concerned about, like the economy, immigration, and crime, more people trust the GOP than the Democrats to manage them.
Now, consider this: Pew Research Center has discovered that polls have been less accurate when former President Donald Trump is on the ballot when compared to other polls in the past 20 years. If this is true, what does that say about Harris’ numbers? Could the combination of the vice president’s media-embellished hype and Trump’s impact on the polls be fabricating a flawed view?
One well-known issue with polls is “forced choice.” Let’s say participants have only three options. If their opinion is not listed, they choose the statement closest to how they feel. Not only do polls “limit people’s sense of wider possibilities,” but “those who pay the pollsters commonly influence the scope of ideas and attitudes deemed worthy of consideration,” claims national media watch group FAIR.
“A good pollster is like a good attorney, and fights for the result that the commissioning party expects or needs,” quipped Christopher Hitchens in 1992, writing for Harper’s. “[I]n the parlance, such a poll is called ‘client-directed.’ Pollsters themselves make no bones about their influence on the outcome.” […]
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