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Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman Throw Down in Catfight Over 2024 Election Predictions

by Red State
September 29, 2024
in Aggregated, Opinions
Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman Throw Down in Catfight Over 2024 Election Predictions

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We’ve been covering a lot of the polls, focus groups, betting markets, and other indicators in regard to the election.

But there was a funny catfight between two people who are election prognosticators, Professor Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver.

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Lichtman has a system where he applies true or false questions to 13 questions. if there are six or more false answers, the challenger — in this case, former President Donald Trump — would win. But Lichtman has interpreted his keys and he’s predicting Kamala Harris will win.

This is how he’s interpreted the keys:

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
  4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
  5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
  6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects [sic] major changes in national policy. TRUE
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
  10. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
  11. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
  12. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  13. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

[…]

— Read More: redstate.com


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